Robert Stross has a birthday today (1/31), but he was not at the meeting this morning. Tell him "Happy Birthday" if you see him.
Chris Clarke introduced Charlie
Waterhouse of United Bank and Trust. He came to talk to us this morning
about what to expect of the economy in 2012. There is still a lot of
uncertainty about the direction the country is going, and this being an
election year, there are probably no big actions coming our of Congress
in the immediate future.
He pointed to the recovery of the auto
companies as boding well. In going through bankruptcy they reduced
their break-even point from 14 million units sales to 10.5 million
units. This past year they sold 13 million units, so it seems they are
on the road to profits again.
Unemployment in Lenawee County has
ranged from 11.5% to 9.9% in recent months, but the latest figure shows
it currently at 8.5%. While that is still too high, it shows movement
in the right direction. We need GDP growth in the range of 3.5-4% to
further reduce the unemployment, but it remains stubbornly at 1.5-2%.
In
normal times, the Federal Reserve can lower the short-term interest
rates it charges banks to stimulate the economy, but since those rates
are already essentially zero, they have no leverage there. They have
other tools, like expanding the money supply, that they can use, but
there has been no decision on which one or ones will be needed.
One
big factor in the uncertainty is the state of the Euro-Zone economies.
Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain are in varying degrees of
economic distress. We are exposed to their problems because they are
importers of our manufactured goods. Until their problems get sorted
out, we will need to try to reduce our exposure to them.
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| Guest Speaker Charlie Waterhouse. |